The key rule for evaluating options that include outcomes that are uncertain is the expectation principle: the value of being exposed to the possibility of an outcome is determined by the value of the outcome and the frequency with which it would be experienced if you were exposed to the possibility repeatedly. For example, facing […]
Information-seeking and its pitfalls
One major strategy for managing uncertainty is seeking additional information about the likelihood of outcomes. New information may enable a patient to reduce their uncertainty directly, as when new research studies provide more insight into patient outcomes and suggest increase the likelihood that a particular treatment will or will not be beneficial. Even when new […]